Category Archives: Unemployment Reports

Does this look like a POTUS who “lost jobs”, or like a POTUS who inherited an economy in free fall?


 

The 405 Club: The Un-Employment Support Network in New York & Beyond!  Does this look like a POTUS who “lost jobs”, or like a POTUS who inherited an economy in free fall?

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January Unemployment Wrap Up: 9%.


The unemployment rate fell in January to 9% according to the Employment Situation Report. However, only 36,000 jobs were added on a seasonally adjusted basis, significantly below Bernanke’s estimate of 100,000 jobs needed for stability (and therefore an even bigger gap from Reich’s estimate). This is also below the expectations illustrated by the Bloomberg consensus range of 55,000 to 200,000.

600,000 people are no longer unemployed, but the labor force was unchanged. That’s an interesting gap between the household survey (determines the unemployment rate) and the establishment survey (determines number of jobs added). Typically, changes in the labor force help explain the gap. This report is a bit unusual, though, and offers us a substantial population revision (Table C). This revision does not cause the BLS to change their official data for prior months, but they detail what the impacts would have been. The BLS points out that this policy has the unfortunate side effect of making historical comparisons less useful.

January is a negative employment month…

Continue Reading via The 405 Club: The Un-Employment Support Network in New York & Beyond! · January Unemployment Wrap Up: 9%..

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Unemployment: New Claims Down.


The volatility in new unemployment claims continues. This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report bring us down to 415k. Last week’s number was revised up 3k. The Bloomberg consensus range was 354k to 434k, which highlights the impact of recent volatility on analyst claims more than it indicates increased optimism. From the report:In the week ending Jan. 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 415,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 457,000. The 4-week moving average was 430,500, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 429,500.

Continue Reading via The 405 Club: The Un-Employment Support Network in New York & Beyond! · Unemployment: New Claims Down..

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