January Unemployment Wrap Up: 9%.


The unemployment rate fell in January to 9% according to the Employment Situation Report. However, only 36,000 jobs were added on a seasonally adjusted basis, significantly below Bernanke’s estimate of 100,000 jobs needed for stability (and therefore an even bigger gap from Reich’s estimate). This is also below the expectations illustrated by the Bloomberg consensus range of 55,000 to 200,000.

600,000 people are no longer unemployed, but the labor force was unchanged. That’s an interesting gap between the household survey (determines the unemployment rate) and the establishment survey (determines number of jobs added). Typically, changes in the labor force help explain the gap. This report is a bit unusual, though, and offers us a substantial population revision (Table C). This revision does not cause the BLS to change their official data for prior months, but they detail what the impacts would have been. The BLS points out that this policy has the unfortunate side effect of making historical comparisons less useful.

January is a negative employment month…

Continue Reading via The 405 Club: The Un-Employment Support Network in New York & Beyond! · January Unemployment Wrap Up: 9%..

Advertisements
Tagged , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: